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Atlantic Blue Shark Management Strategy Evaluation
(Prionace glauca)
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Overview
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While a formal MSE process has not yet been launched for Blue Shark,
several ICCAT recommendations call for the evaluation of
feasibility:
Rec. 21-09: Requests the SCRS to explore the
feasibility of developing an MSE for Blue Shark.
Rec. 22-08:
Reiterates this request and establishes the basis for analytical
development.
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Summary
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The SCRS has advanced the outlook for Blue Shark MSE through two key
documents prepared in 2024. These focus on developing code architecture,
conducting preliminary closed-loop simulations for the northern stock,
and assessing technical feasibility.
Taylor (2024) presents a
compact closed-loop simulation framework for Blue Shark MSE that uses
multivariate Bayesian priors for life-history parameters and tests
ICCAT-relevant management procedures (MPs) against minimum performance
standards. Example simulations show that several MPs—both index- and
model-based—achieve high probabilities (>90%) of remaining above 40%
BMSY, with green quadrant probabilities ranging from 60% to 90%, and
greater catch variability observed in model-based MPs.
Carruthers
(2024) introduces a streamlined simulation platform for Atlantic Blue
Shark MSE, using operating models that incorporate uncertainty in
life-history and productivity parameters. It evaluates both index- and
model-based MPs, demonstrating that many exceed performance benchmarks
such as maintaining biomass above 40% BMSY and achieving 60–90%
probability of being in the Kobe green quadrant. The platform also
explores algorithms to automatically tune MPs to minimum performance
standards. The full source code is available at
github.com/Blue-Matter/Blue_Shark_MSE.
The SCRS has submitted a
feasibility analysis for northern and southern Blue Shark MSE to the
Commission in 2025.
Taylor et al (2025) presents an evaluation of
the feasibility, cost, and timeline of conducting Management Strategy
Evaluation (MSE) processes for the northern and southern Atlantic blue
shark (BSH) stocks, following ICCAT Recommendations 23-10 and 23-11. The
study builds on the 2023 stock assessment and prior simulation work,
proposing a shared modeling framework using stock-specific operating
models and management procedures (MPs). Two implementation options are
examined: a two-year process with MP adoption by 2027, and a three-year
process with adoption by 2028. The report concludes that MSE development
for both BSH stocks is technically feasible, cost-effective, and
consistent with ICCAT’s existing MSE framework, provided timely support,
scientific coordination, and funding are secured.
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References
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Materials
Rec/Res
Meetings
SCRS Docs
Others
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Updated: July 7, 2025
